Views from the Hill

Our monthly view on global financial markets and behavioral finance. Insightful commentary in a brief format to help professionals and clients make informed planning decisions.

2020-2022: A Stress-Test of Your Plan

January, 2023 Think back to December 2019. The economy was in high growth mode. Unemployment, interest rates, and inflation were at historically low levels. But what happened next?

Market Movements Aren’t Announced in Advance

December, 2022 Negative stock returns and aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have many concerned that another Big Recession is coming — if we’re not already there. Media commenting on the possibility creates even more worry about markets sinking … Continue reading

Rising Rates: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain?

November, 2022 Bonds have done so poorly this year that many investors wonder about still holding bonds. Others see a great opportunity in fixed income securities due to greatly increased yields. U.S. government bonds now yield over 4 percent; other … Continue reading

Pre- and Post-Election Investing Considerations

October, 2022 KEY POINTS It’s difficult to identify any election year systematic market return patterns. Market returns on average have been positive the year following mid-term elections. Market expectations associated with elections are embedded in current prices. It’s almost Election … Continue reading

Meta Morphasizing from Growth to Value

September, 2022 A frequently voiced argument against value investing stems from opinions expressed in the media and elsewhere that we’re in a “new normal” environment where stocks in innovative or high-tech companies have an investing advantage over “old guard” established … Continue reading

Capturing Value Returns in Planning

August, 2022 KEY TAKEAWAYS A continuous and careful value focus best positions you to capture value premiums when they appear for a greater expected return than focusing on growth stocks. Value stocks have surged in the past year, but the … Continue reading

Planning During Big Bad Bear Markets

July, 2022 When you consider reducing your stock allocation due to bear market pain, balance the regret you feel as markets go down with the regret of missing out when things turn around. Today people we know are worried about … Continue reading

Unpredictable Outcomes of Single Stock Investing

June, 2022 An old investing adage says, “To get rich, invest it all in the one right stock. To get poor, invest it all in the wrong stock.” We’ve seen this recently. The great importance of diversification for planning successful … Continue reading

Have the Big Five Tech Stocks Been DeFAANGed?

May, 2022 Investors expecting FAANG1 stocks to continue the extraordinary performance of recent years must be disappointed by their returns to date in 2022 (see Exhibit 1). Four of the five stocks lagged the broad US market through May 5, … Continue reading

Is It Time to Sell Stocks?

April, 2022 After touching record highs in early January, US stocks1 have slumped the past quarter, and investors have been confronted with worrisome headlines2 in the financial press: “Inflation Hits Fastest Clip Since ’82” — Gwynn Guilford, Wall Street Journal, … Continue reading