Views from the Hill

Our monthly view on global financial markets and behavioral finance. Insightful commentary in a brief format to help professionals and clients make informed planning decisions.

Meta Morphasizing from Growth to Value

September, 2022 A frequently voiced argument against value investing stems from opinions expressed in the media and elsewhere that we’re in a “new normal” environment where stocks in innovative or high-tech companies have an investing advantage over “old guard” established … Continue reading

Capturing Value Returns in Planning

August, 2022 KEY TAKEAWAYS A continuous and careful value focus best positions you to capture value premiums when they appear for a greater expected return than focusing on growth stocks. Value stocks have surged in the past year, but the … Continue reading

Planning During Big Bad Bear Markets

July, 2022 When you consider reducing your stock allocation due to bear market pain, balance the regret you feel as markets go down with the regret of missing out when things turn around. Today people we know are worried about … Continue reading

Unpredictable Outcomes of Single Stock Investing

June, 2022 An old investing adage says, “To get rich, invest it all in the one right stock. To get poor, invest it all in the wrong stock.” We’ve seen this recently. The great importance of diversification for planning successful … Continue reading

Have the Big Five Tech Stocks Been DeFAANGed?

May, 2022 Investors expecting FAANG1 stocks to continue the extraordinary performance of recent years must be disappointed by their returns to date in 2022 (see Exhibit 1). Four of the five stocks lagged the broad US market through May 5, … Continue reading

Is It Time to Sell Stocks?

April, 2022 After touching record highs in early January, US stocks1 have slumped the past quarter, and investors have been confronted with worrisome headlines2 in the financial press: “Inflation Hits Fastest Clip Since ’82” — Gwynn Guilford, Wall Street Journal, … Continue reading

Is Labeling Investing as Active vs. Passive Useful?

March, 2022 An evolving investing landscape has rendered simple “active” vs. “passive” labels outdated as useful descriptions of contrasting investment management approaches. A more nuanced framework for thinking about approaches once considered opposing is to distinguish that strategy’s philosophy from … Continue reading

Factors Impacting Systematically Structured Strategies

February, 2022 KEY TAKEAWAYS Capturing size, value, and profitability premiums requires specialized expertise. Emphasizing one premium over another or one region over another based on magnitudes of expected premiums from samples of history has potential problems. An integrated core approach … Continue reading

Managing Uncertainty within Wealth Planning

January, 2022 KEY TAKEAWAYS Stock markets hit new records during 2021, with the S&P 500 progressively hitting new highs as Americans painfully adjusted to a post-lockdown world Inflation hit new highs as prices suddenly increased with no end in sight, … Continue reading

Inflation Hits Stocks and the Dow Still Hits 36,000

Fueled by endless low interest rates and unending government spending, U.S. inflation accelerated to over 6% annualized as Dow Jones Averages of leading U.S. stocks moved to a record 36,000. In 1999 during a previous booming stock market, two economists, … Continue reading