Views from the Hill

Our monthly view on global financial markets and behavioral finance. Insightful commentary in a brief format to help professionals and clients make informed planning decisions.

Disclosures  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Don’t Waste Time on Fed Forecasts

August, 2024 The sell-off in global stocks over the past month has been a correction from sky-high share valuations of a few AI firms. It may also be a reckoning for a decade and a half of cheap money and … Continue reading →

The Great AI Tide May Lift Many Boats

July, 2024 Today it’s hard to imagine a company that did not benefit from the advent of e-commerce in the late 1990s. Market trading betting on a transformation led to a great market bubble including many companies with only “.com” … Continue reading →

Realized Premiums from Expected Returns for Small Value Stocks

June, 2024 Does twenty years of cumulative underperformance of U.S. small value stocks compared to a popular market index of U.S. large stocks commonly used for measuring returns bring into question the decades of financial research behind our Dimensional approach … Continue reading →

American Presidential Elections and U.S. Stock Returns

May, 2024 On November 5, American voters will cast their ballots for the next president of the United States. With six months of vigorous campaigning yet ahead, with likely candidates in place, investors and commentators will have plenty of opportunities … Continue reading →

Is the S&P 500 a True Stock Market Index?

April, 2024 Most investors commonly believe that the familiar S&P 500 index comprises the largest 500 US stocks by market capitalization. That’s not true. In fact, Standard & Poors has a long list of eligibility requirements developed for its committee’s … Continue reading →

Recent Realized Equity Value Premiums and Expected Planning Outcomes

March, 2024 The 20-year return of US small cap value stocks versus the S&P 500 Index of large US stocks negatively dipped this year for the first time in US stock market history. Two decades is a long time to … Continue reading →

Exciting Returns Are Not Expected Returns

February, 2024 The S&P 500 index of large U.S. stocks closed above 5000 last Friday, a record high for 2024 That same day a new client emailed us expressing concern about their account returns last year. Before becoming a client, … Continue reading →

Market Review 2023: Annual Forecasts Missed the Mark – Again

January, 2024 Market predictions could not have been more wrong, defying media speculations. With so many bearish forecasts, 2023’s blockbuster ending was unimaginable. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2023 at the fastest rate since the 1980s, a regional … Continue reading →

Country Debt, Fed Fund Rates, and Stock Returns

December, 2023 Contrary to a popular storyline of media commentators, since 1975 stocks have climbed two-thirds of the time in countries whose government debt exceeded 100% of gross domestic product (GDP). U.S. government debt reached 121% of the value of … Continue reading →

Stocks in the Market vs. the Stock Market

November, 2023 Aggregate stock market valuation ratios have not been strong predictors of broad market returns in the short or the intermediate term. And yet, high stock valuations sit near the top of concerns cited by investors about the state … Continue reading →